England vs India 2018: Should India bat or bowl first in the 4th Test?

The last time Virat Kohli won the toss in the current England tour was in the first One Day International at Nottingham on 12th July 2018, nearly 50 days back. In the first three Test matches, the decision was taken out of his hands and it was Joe Root all the way. Of course, the two factors that Kohli can’t control in a cricket field are the fate of a toss and his boundless enthusiasm for the game.

During this dry run of 50 days, if not in the other matches, Kohli would have loved to win the all-important toss in the second Test match at Lord’s. As luck would have it, Kohli lost the toss in all the three Test matches and he must now be hoping that Joe Root’s luck with the toss runs out in the fourth Test.

Presupposing, the Law of Probability favouring India this time around, What Team India should do if they win the toss?

When Kohli goes out to toss, he should bear in mind the following factors:

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#1 Past records at the venue

Ageas Bowl - The venue for the fourth Test

England had played just two Test matches at Ageas Bowl, the first one against Sri Lanka in 2011 and the second one against India in 2014.

In the first Test match, England won the toss and elected to bowl first. Sri Lanka was bowled out for 184 in the first innings. However, the match ended in a draw as only 260 of the probable 450 overs of play was feasible due to inclement weather.

In the second Test match against India at this venue, England won the toss and elected to bat first and amazed 569 runs in the first innings. India ended up losing the match by 266 runs.

The two test matches at Ageas Bowl had produced two contrasting results. As a result, there is not a lot more to read into the results and past records at this venue. In the absence of a track record, Kohli should be guided by the overhead conditions and the nature of the pitch on the match day.

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#2 Recent County records at the venue

Based on the recent County records in this ground, the first day’s conditions are expected to favour the bowlers and the pitch is expected to ease out thereafter. The second and third innings scores are expected to be more than the first and fourth innings scores. The spinners will come into play on the fourth and fifth days.

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#3 Team India’s record outside Asia

Team India’s record outside Asia leads to one overwhelming conclusion. Starting from their victory in the Durban Test in 2010 to the Trent Bridge victory last week, India had won only 7 matches outside Asia. Three of those seven wins came against the abysmal West Indies team.

However, the one common denominator in all those seven wins was the fact that on all those 7 occasions India had batted first. It didn’t mean India had not lost a match when they batted first in that period. The recent defeat in the second Test at Lord ’s was one of such many occasions. But their only wins in the last 10 years outside Asia had all come when they batted first.

#4 Team India’s performance in the current series

Huge responsibility on the shoulders of the captain and the vice-captain

In the current series, when Team India batted second in the first Test, they failed to chase down a modest fourth innings target of 196. On the other hand, when Joe Root invited India to bat first at Trent Bridge on a reasonably good pitch, India managed to bat through the first day and went on to dominate the match from thereon.

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#5 India’s strongest suit in the current series

The Indian bowlers in fine form

The bowlers were the champions for Team India in the current series. The bowlers failed to deliver only once in the series at Lord’s. Compared to that, the batsmen were struggling throughout the series and were partly successful only at Trent Bridge.

The risk for Kohli in opting to bowl first is that, if England gets off to a good start in the first innings, that will be the end of the series for India. On the other hand, if the batsmen, by some means, manage to put up a decent score on the board in the first innings, Kohli could fall back on his bowlers to deliver.

Even in the Lord's test, in response to India’s first innings score of 107, the Indian bowlers left England batsmen gasping for breath at 89 for 4 before Chris Woakes ’s unexpected century pulled England out of the woods.

In the present form, the Indian bowlers are better prepared to face the challenge than the batsmen. The bowlers should be able to defend any challenging total. The Indian batsmen, in their current form, should be better off batting first without any pressure of the scoreboard.

Any cavalier approach on Kohli’s part at the toss could spell disaster for Team India. Kohli won’t be condemned if he decides to bat first and his batsmen fail him. Alternatively, if Kohli chooses to bowl first and the match slips out of India’s hands, Kohli should be prepared to take the fall. Kohli should commit to memory what happened to Root at Trent Bridge.

Unless the conditions on the first day of the fourth Test are similar to the one at Lord’s, India should look to bat first and the Indian batsmen should be mentally prepared to face the ordeal.

Common sense suggests that India should bat first should they win the toss. After the misfortune at Trent Bridge, Kohli can’t expect Joe Root to repeat the favour. But Kohli should make certain that he doesn’t return the favour to Joe Root when the series is on the line.

Notwithstanding all the discussions before the toss, one can strongly feel that England would be batting first in the fourth Test, either by choice or by design.